Expectations

In the period between 02.06.2004 and 09.06.2004, a survey was done in several towns throughout the Republic of Macedonia as part of the project "Citiznes' Platform for Peace and Stability".

The survey was carried out by Foundation Open Society Institute - Macedonia in cooperation with NGO Support Centres in Stip, Prilep, Kicevo, Veles, Delcevo, Debar, Kratovo, Resen, Gevgelija, Struga, Strumica, Negotino, and local NGOs from Skopje, Tetovo, Bitola, and Kumanovo.

The survey aimed at identifying citizens' expectations and priorities on the following two issues: "What do you expect from the new President of the Republic of Macedonia?" and "What do you expect from the new Government?".

Citizens had been given an opportunity to express their expectations on the project's Web site, but the low number of site visits imposed the need for the implementation of a survey in several towns throughout the Republic of Macedonia.

The sample is not representative and does not reflect citzens' viws on national level. The questions were open-ended offering freedom of expression, and the same were answered by people of different age, gender, ethnicity, and education level.

The position "President of State" (Republic of Macedonia) is regulated by the Constitution, which specifically defines his/her competencies. In that respect, according to the Constitution, the President of the Republic of Macedonia^¹, primarily:

Although the list of competencies is quite small, the expectations of the public are rather big and go beyond the framework of authority envisaged. Then again, in the course of elections, the presidential candidates focus on priorities and promises that go beyond constitutional competencies in their quest for votes. For that reason the question "What are your expectations from the President of State"^² (See: Table 1/example 1) was included in the public opinion poll. Obviously, the majority of the interviewed (12%) expected nothing from their President. According to the answers, every tenth respondent (9%) expected the prosperity of Macedonia, and better life from the President. A certain number of interviewed persons focused on Macedonia’s accession within the EU (8%) and secured peace and stability in the country (8%). Six per cent (6%) of the interviewed persons expect the President of the Republic of Macedonia to fully engage in the field of employment. Affirmation of Macedonia internationally is ranked on the sixth position of this “list of expectations”, i.e. five per cent (5%) of the respondents. The other options - Macedonia’s accession into NATO (4%), to lead the country to the benefit of the population (4%), to be honest, conscientious, independent (4%) and to secure economic development and investments (4%) - were the last among the ten preferred expectation in the given ranking list.

A more general overview, by regrouping conditionally speaking related answers, would suggest a different outlook of expectations. See: Table 2/ example 1.

Although answers vary, two fifths of the respondents expect the President to contribute the most in economic development (22%) and internationally (20%). On the other hand, 16% of the interviewed are indifferent and hardly expect any changes during the President’s mandate - Nothing special will happen. Every tenth interviewed person hopes that the President will perform his duty honestly and conscientiously and that he will fulfill his promises (11%), i.e., secure peace and stability in the country (9%). Improving interethnic relations and the Head of State acting as President of all citizens are priority expectations for 6% of the interviewed persons. Four per cent (4%) of the interviewed citizens expressed skepticism, mistrust, even possibilities of a worse future. Unlike them, some interviewed citizens (3%) hope that the President will have a positive impact in certain segments in society (education, culture, sport, etc.). The other less frequent responses are included in the option "Other" (9%) since it is methodologically impossible to comment on them separately.

In terms of socio-demographic features of the respondents, there are no visible oscillations in the general distribution of answers. Thus, the gender of respondents, as an independent variable in relation with this issue, does not result in a meaningful redistribution of answers. Some variation in the answers of the option “Macedonia’s accession within EU” is registered, i.e., 9% of the male interviewees preferred the option, which is by 3% more than the female respondents. Similar is the situation with the answers related to employment, where the percentage of female respondents is slightly higher (7%) than male respondents (4%).

The age of the interviewed citizens, of course, demands some rearrangement of expectations, which is logical, since different age categories face different problems, hence different priorities. Apparently, the highest degree of indifference and resignation is found in the third and fourth age group (35-44 and 45-54 years), who are currently impacted by the crisis in the country the most. By 5%, i.e., 2% above the average they responded that they expected nothing from the President of State. The greatest optimism for improving the standard of living and increasing economic development was expressed by the senior age groups (55-64 and over 65 years), which is 4%, i.e., 11% more than the average responding to this option. A bit more than the average of the youngest age group (15-24 years) or 7% regard employment as a key expectation. In addition, the second age group (25-34 years) expects the affirmation of Macedonia internationally, which is almost twice the average (8%).

Although in opinion polls, by rule, the independent variable "ethnicity" is one of the key determinants, still when this issue is concerned, there are no meaningful deviations from the general trend of answers. Namely, the rank-list of expectations between the Macedonians and Albanians surveyed is mainly identical with some minor oscillations. Notably, disappointment and resignation can be found equally in both ethnic groups (13% and 12% respectively). Similarly, the percentage of those who expect the President to contribute to the prosperity of Macedonia and the improvement of the standard of living (9%) is the same. Some degree of divergence can be noted in terms of the international position of the country, i.e., to a lesser degree the interviewed Albanians expect positive changes in relations to the interviewed Macedonians, especially concerning “the affirmation of Macedonia internationally” (4% less), “accession of Macedonia within the EU” (3% less) and “accession of Macedonia within NATO” (1% less).

Regarding this issue, the education of the respondents determined somewhat different responses. Notably, the most disappointed ones and those who expected nothing from the Head of State were the interviewed citizens with secondary school (2% more than the average). Respondents with primary education expected peace and stability (5% more than the average distribution), while international affirmation of Macedonia (5% more than the general trend) is expected by the respondents with higher level of education (higher than secondary).

The response to the question: "what do you expect from the Government", most of the respondents (15%) answered employment as the key problem they expected the Government of the Republic of Macedonia to resolve positively (See Table 3/example 2). Further on, according to the responses, a quarter of the respondents expected improvement of the situation and the standard of living in the country - 12%, i.e. creation of economic stability and securing investments - 12%. Eight per cent (8%) of the respondents expected nothing from the Government, while only 5% of the respondents hoped that the Government will be honest, cost-efficient and more engaged. Judging on the basis of the responses, the functioning of a legal state (4%), and resolving a series of social and public service problems (4%), should also e put on the agenda of the Government. The other 9% of the respondents focused their expectations from the Government on EU accession (3%), better future and concern for young people (3%), as well as fight against corruption (3%). The table below (see: Table 3/example 2) presents three quarters of the more frequent given answers of the interviewed citizens, which makes them more relevant for this interpretation. The rest, 25% of the responses, are dispersed throughout the other options, and due to their limited occurrence they have been incorporated in the option “other”.

Although the socio-demographic features of the respondents do not signify any important statistical relevance in the different responses to this question, some inconsistency however can be noted in certain categories, specifically, in the independent variables of age, ethnicity and level of education of respondents. There is no indicative inconsistency regarding the gender of the respondents in this specific case.

Hence, the age of the respondents, according to the answers, determines somewhat of a shift in the concentration of answers. Markedly, the younger age groups (15-24 years - 17% and 25-34 years - 17%) expect greater involved of the Government in resolving the issue of employment. Fourteen per cent (14%) of the respondents hope for a better future and an improved standard of living and they belong to the fourth age group (45-54 years), or 2% more than the registered average distribution. One fifth of the interviewed citizens from the fifth age group expect the Government to improve the economic situation in the country, which is 8% more than the general distribution of answers. Otherwise, most of the skeptics come from the third and fourth age group, and their opinion, for 2% i.e., 3% more than the average, is that the situation in the country will remain status quo with this Government.

In terms of education, the answers are evidently regrouped within the framework of specific options, which is logical considering the implications of this factor on the social status of the respondents. To be exact, the respondents with the lowest level of education (primary) state, above average, "employment" as the priority of the Government (more than 2%). At the same time, this group of respondents, more than the average, expects the Government to find a solution for the social and public services. Unlike them however, the respondents with a higher level of education expect the Government to create conditions for the functioning of the legal State. To be precise, this option was preferred by 2% of the respondents with primary education, 4% with secondary education, and 5% with higher level of education.

The fact that the State is facing numerous problems that equally affect all citizens of the Republic of Macedonia is the reason why the difference of opinion, from the viewpoint of ethnicity of the respondents, is hardly evident. In that respect, to this question, as to the previous one, there seems to be insignificant inconsistency that does not deviate from the general trend of responses. For example, 3% more than the average of the interviewed Albanians expect greater involvement of the Government in the issue of employment, while 3% less than the average expect the Government to contribute to the economic development of the country. In terms of resignation and distrust in the capacity of this Government to improve and change things, respondents from both ethnic groups have a common opinion i.e., this was a preferred answer of 8% Macedonian respondents and 6% of interviewed Albanians.

1 Article 79 and 84 of the Constitution of the Republic of Macedonia, 2001.

2 The question was posed as an open ended question to encourage respondents to provide answers on their specific expectations from the new President. According to the answers given, the list is very long, and thus creates an interpretation problem unless a common “denominator” is found for specific answers. This comment will focus on frequent answers, whereas the other answers will be incorporated within the option “other”. Some of them will be mentioned for the purposes of illustration.