The public opinion poll entitled "Peace and Stability - Priorities, Options, and Perspectives" was carried out within the Project "Citizen Platform for Peace and Stability", co-funded by Foundation Open Society Institute -
The survey was carried out in the period 5-25 October 2003. A total of 1.097 "face-to-face" interviews were performed, with a sample representing the adult population in
The survey was conducted by the
· Stevan Tomovski, graduated engineer, SMS (Certified Management Consultant), organizer and analyst - team leader
· Mileva Gjurovska, PhD, professor at the University "Sts. Cyril and Methodius",
· Snezana Nikodimovska, PhD, docent at the Faculty of Security,
· Ljubinka Popovska, graduated mathematician, expert on statistical data processing
· Natasha Loparska, graphic designer and computing expert
· Gorgi Kovacev, graduated engineer, consultant.
The research aimed at identifying what were citizens' opinions concerning the following issues:
- The most current societal problems in the
- Ways of overcoming issues mentioned above
- Prospects of the
This survey's results were compared with the results of the survey entitled "Peace, Stability, and Elections" carried out in 2002 by the
SECTION 1: THE MOST CURRENT SOCIETAL PROBLEMS IN THE
First level of significance: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Societal problems that citizens attached highest significance to, ranked by their current nature and urgency of solving thereof
Table 1
| Definition of the societal problem |
4 Moderately significant |
5 Very significant |
|
| 1 |
High unemployment rate |
9% |
86% |
| 2 |
Corruption of public functionaries |
13% |
79% |
| 3 |
Increase of the rate of organized crime |
13% |
79% |
| 4 |
Citizens' social insecurity |
16% |
77% |
| 5 |
Law violations |
15% |
76% |
| 6 |
Poor protection of the rights of employees and of unemployed |
17% |
75% |
The interviewed citizens placed unemployment first on the list of current problems; followed by a group of problems closely related to abuse of competencies and abuse of power (position) as is the case with corruption and organized crime. This is followed by problems related to the violation of laws and the inability to establish legal regulation in the field of protection of the rights of employees and the unemployed.
The overall conclusion from this section is that the social and economic sphere is the one where most significant problems have accumulated, followed by the problem of insufficient legal protection of individuals.
Second level of significance: SECURITY IS STILL A PROBLEM
Table 2
| 1 Totally insignifi-cant |
2 Partly insignifi-cant |
3 Cannot tell |
4 Modera-tely signifi-cant |
5 Very signifi-cant |
||
| 1 |
Huge quantities of illegal weapons in the hands of the population |
2% |
3% |
6% |
15% |
74% |
| 2 |
Insufficient security control by the state forces over the whole territory of the country |
3% |
2% |
6% |
17% |
71% |
| 3 |
Acts of Albanian armed gangs |
9% |
3% |
8% |
9% |
70% |
| 4 |
Cost-ineffective budget spending |
3% |
2% |
9% |
17% |
69% |
| 5 |
Uncertain fate of missing and kidnapped persons |
2% |
2% |
9% |
18% |
69% |
Security problems came second by the level of significance. Out of the 7 problems in this group, 5 were related to the 2001 armed conflict. Citizens are especially worried about the large quantities of illegal weapons in the hands of people. This in itself cannot be a cause of conflict situations, yet may represent a considerable barrier in establishing peace in the post-conflict period.
Problems defined as insufficient security control over the whole territory of the country and acts of Albanian armed gangs are interrelated and it was not by accident that citizens interviewed attributed equal importance to both.
In addition, this group of problems incorporated two issues related to cost-ineffective budget spending and to nepotism (connections) in the course of finding employment. Both indicators are more moderate from the group of social and economic problems that, again, remind of the original significance of unemployment and of citizen’s insecure societal status.
According to the "Peace, Stability, and Elections" public opinion survey, the causes of the conflict, ranked by priorities and identified by Macedonian and by Albanian interviewees included:
Table 2a (2002)
| Percent "very important" |
Maced. |
Alb. |
||
| 1. |
Acts of Albanian paramilitary groups still active in Macedonia (ANA) |
85 |
Discrimination of minority ethnic groups in employment, education, and language rights |
80 |
| 2. |
Incomplete disarmament of NLA by NATO |
78 |
Acts of Macedonian party police and of paramilitary groups in |
67 |
| 3. |
Huge quantities of illegal weapons held in the region |
74 |
Bribery and corruption with political parties undermining the foundations of democracy in the country |
66 |
| 4. |
Grave organized crime including businessmen, paramilitary, and politicians |
70 |
Poor economic opportunities in all sectors of society |
61 |
| 5. |
Bribery and corruption with political parties undermining the foundations of democracy in the country |
65 |
Poor performance of the Macedonian economy |
58 |
Third level of significance: INSUFFICIENT OPERATION OF INSTITUTIONS AND HIGH DEGREE OF POLITICIZATION IN THEIR WORK
Table 3
| 1 Totally insignifi-cant |
2 Partly insignifi-cant |
3 Not defined |
4 Modera-tely signifi-cant |
5 Very signifi-cant |
||
| 1 |
Lack of independent judiciary |
2% |
3% |
12% |
20% |
62% |
| 2 |
Insufficient control over the border with Kosovo |
9% |
3% |
8% |
19% |
60% |
| 3 |
Inadequate staffing schemes |
2% |
3% |
10% |
25% |
59% |
| 4 |
Absence of citizens’ involvement in decision-making |
5% |
4% |
18% |
23% |
58% |
| 5 |
Not solving the problems of loss-making enterprises |
2% |
4% |
14% |
23% |
57% |
In the case of problems of medium significance, the issues related to legal order was again noted i.e. the non-existence of independent judiciary.
Within this scope of problems occupying interviewees' attention, yet not with a high degree of significance, one can identify the problems related to the internal organization of the state. This covers problems such as politicization and partization of state government and inadequate staffing solutions.
The interviewed citizens were also not indifferent towards the problem of loss-making enterprises and local self-government identifying the dominant position of the central government as the main problem i.e. the absence of citizens’ involvement in the process of making decisions that affect them.
Fourth level of societal problem significance: LACK OF DEVELOPED LEGAL ENVIRONMENT FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
Table 4
| 1 Totally insignifi-cant |
2 Partly insignifi-cant |
3 Not defined |
4 Modera-tely signifi-cant |
5 Very signifi-cant |
||
| 1 |
Legislation not developed |
2% |
3% |
14% |
26% |
55% |
| 2 |
Absence of sanction for grey economy |
3% |
3% |
12% |
26 |
55% |
| 3 |
Non-existence of conditions favorable for FDI |
2% |
3% |
15% |
28% |
51% |
| 4 |
Absence of incentives for SME development |
2% |
3% |
14% |
31% |
50% |
| 5 |
Insufficient democratic awareness and political culture of the population |
5% |
6% |
17% |
24% |
49% |
The economic environment is unfavorable and most of the citizens interviewed ranked it as highly alarming; the societal environment suffers from the lack of developed legislation and inadequate sanctions. The whole picture becomes complete with the absence of FDI-susceptible conditions and the absence of incentives for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME).
Democratic awareness is hardly developed as is the political culture as another component of the overall societal environment; however the citizens interviewed did not attribute high importance to the issue.
Table 5
| 1 Totally insignifi-cant |
2 Partly insignifi-cant |
3 Not defined |
4 Modera-tely signifi-cant |
5 Very signifi-cant |
||
| 1 |
Uncertain territorial division |
5% |
5% |
19% |
28% |
44% |
| 2 |
Undefined status of the Kosovo protectorate |
14% |
5% |
18% |
19 |
44% |
| 3 |
Slow pace of local government reforms |
5% |
6% |
18% |
28% |
43% |
| 4 |
Religious intolerance |
9% |
7% |
18% |
23% |
42% |
| 5 |
Local government dependence on central government |
5% |
4% |
18% |
32% |
40% |
| 7 |
Introducing ethnic minority quotas in employment |
19% |
9% |
20% |
17% |
35% |
| 8 |
Slow pace of Framework Agreement implementation |
20% |
9% |
19% |
20% |
31% |
The above percentage of responses (31% to 45%) is not statistically insignificant. Problems related to decentralization of power and local government make up a separate group of issues within this group.
It is interesting that the Framework Agreement as such did not raise the interest of the citizens interviewed; it was ranked last by significance in this list of problems. The real reflection will be seen when we analyze relevant data by ethnic affiliation. In addition, the left side of the above table demonstrates that 20% of the interviewed persons identified this issue as not significant.
The introduction of quotas to promote ethnic minorities was also ranked at the bottom of the list of significant problems, and 19% responded that this issue is not significant at all.
The issue of religious intolerance does exist, yet it has slightly impacted the societal environment as it was positioned at the bottom of the list of relevant problems, as was the coalition problem.
SECTION 2: HOW CAN SOCIETAL PROBLEMS BE RESOLVED?
In the second section of the survey, a proposed list of possible solutions (measures) to overcome problems identified by the interviewed was offered.
First group of solutions to societal problems: IMPROVING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY
Most important solutions i.e. measures identified by 75% of citizens interviewed.
Table 6
| 1 I completely disagree |
2 I moderately disagree |
3 Cannot tell |
4 I moderately agree |
5 I completely agree |
||
| 1 |
Stimulating employment |
1% |
1% |
3% |
11% |
85 % |
| 2 |
Strict sanctions for corrupt public officials |
1% |
1% |
3% |
11% |
83% |
| 3 |
Enhancing anti-corruption measures |
2% |
1% |
3% |
13% |
81% |
| 4 |
Strategy for economic development |
2% |
2% |
5% |
12% |
78% |
The most important solution- in line with the previously identified most important problem- is employment i.e. the creation of socioeconomic conditions favorable for increasing employment opportunities. In addition, for most of the interviewees, the societal state of affairs is made more difficult by corruption. A special measure identified by interviewees is strict sanctioning (punishment) of officials who abuse their positions for personal benefits.
The adoption of a strategy for economic development is another equally significant measure. One may conclude that the society lacks an organized effort to restructure economy.
Second group of solutions to societal problems: MEASURES TO INCREASE SECURITY IN FORMER CONFLICT AREAS
Table 7
| 1 I completely disagree |
2 I modera-tely disagree |
3 Cannot tell |
4 I moderately agree |
5 I completely agree |
||
| 1 |
Enhancing the authority of competent bodies to protect citizens` social rights |
1% |
1% |
7% |
17% |
74% |
| 2 |
Intensifying the campaign on disposal of illegal weapons |
2% |
3% |
8% |
14% |
73% |
| 3 |
IDPs return to their homes |
2% |
3% |
7% |
16% |
73% |
| 4 |
Increased control of former crisis regions |
5% |
2% |
8% |
13% |
73% |
| 5 |
Agricultural development |
1% |
2% |
8% |
16% |
72% |
In this group of measures the first ranking one was related to competent bodies undertaking measures to protect citizens` social rights. Attention however, was given to the measures improving the security situation. Advantage was given to the issue of solving illegal weapon possession, followed by solving the problem with state control over former conflict regions.
The citizens are sufficiently aware of the significance of the measure of creating conditions favorable for investment, especially foreign investment. However, the ranking of this measure as 11th in order shows that, before it could be realized, the issues of corruption, legal state and security should be resolved.
For comparison, priorities related to peace and stability, viewed by Macedonian and by Albanian interviewees in last year’s survey were as follows:
Table 7a (2002)
| Percentage share “essential” |
Macedonians |
Albanians |
||
| 1. |
Efficient measures against paramilitary and organized crime |
83 |
State-financed Albanian-language university |
85 |
| 2. |
Strengthening the rule of law |
75 |
FA complete implementation |
84 |
| 3. |
Genuine independent judiciary |
75 |
Strong measures to prevent ethnic discrimination |
82 |
| 4. |
Free and fair elections |
72 |
Free and fair elections |
80 |
| 5. |
Reconstruction of the houses of IDPs and guaranteeing their safety |
72 |
Local government development |
78 |
Third group of solutions to societal problems: MEASURES TO IMPROVE THE PERFORMANCE OF INSTITUTIONS (DEPOLITICIZATION AND DEPARTICIZATION), AND CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE LEGAL CONTEXT FOR OPERATION
Table 8
| 1 I completely disagree |
2 I moderately disagree |
3 Cannot tell |
4 I moderately agree |
5 I completely agree |
||
| 1 |
Preventing political influences in the judiciary |
2% |
2% |
11% |
20% |
65 % |
| 2 |
Creating favorable conditions for small and medium-sized businesses |
1% |
1% |
8% |
26% |
64% |
| 3 |
Preventing political party influence within public administration |
4% |
3% |
11% |
21% |
62% |
| 4 |
Providing mechanisms to involve citizens in decision-making |
4% |
3% |
9% |
23% |
61% |
| 5 |
Providing for equal development of local government throughout the whole country |
4% |
3% |
10% |
22% |
61% |
Possible solutions or measures of third-ranking significance by interviewees include measures to re-organize the internal operation of public bodies, the judiciary in particular. Action is expected to decrease the level of politicization in the judiciary, as well as to decrease the influence of the political party in office over public administration, so as to create a favorable environment for the operation of small and medium-sized businesses (favorable legislation, favorable loan conditions, and access to information); ensuring greater control of the border to Kosovo; systematic approach in drafting laws (their compatibility); and securing judiciary’s financial independence.
The accession of the Republic of Macedonia to EU and NATO was not listed within the group of measures of high importance as there is awareness present among the citizens interviewed that many other problems ought be solved first to overcome the crisis in the country.
Fourth group of solutions to societal problems:
THE
Table 9
| 1 I completely disagree |
2 I moderately disagree |
3 Cannot tell |
4 I moderately agree |
5 I completely agree |
||
| 1 |
Ensuring financially independent judiciary |
5% |
4% |
19% |
26% |
48% |
| 2 |
Increasing activities for educating the population on democratic processes |
12% |
4% |
18% |
29% |
45% |
| 3 |
Involving citizens in the public debate on territorial organization |
8% |
5% |
17% |
26% |
44% |
| 4 |
Involving the population in the campaign for collecting illegal weapons |
9% |
8% |
17% |
21% |
44% |
| 5 |
A strategic plan to strengthen the confidence among ethnic groups |
6% |
7% |
21% |
25% |
41% |
The environment is created by measures indicating that the resolution of problems in the
As for international monitoring of the functioning of institutions, citizens interviewed placed this measure among the last in the list of measures ranked by significance.
SECTION 3: WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS OF THE
What is the future going to be like if the already indicated problems are not genuinely resolved?
Table 10
| 1 Totally insignifi-cant |
2 Partly insignifi-cant |
3 Cannot tell |
4 Modera-tely signifi-cant |
5 Very signifi-cant |
||
| 1 |
Increased brain-drain in the |
2% |
2% |
6% |
10% |
80% |
| 2 |
Increasing the gap between the rich and the poor |
3% |
1% |
7% |
11% |
79% |
| 3 |
Increasing the sense of uncertainty among citizens |
2% |
2% |
6% |
11% |
79% |
| 4 |
Crime increase |
3% |
2% |
9% |
17% |
70% |
| 5 |
Social riots |
3% |
4% |
10% |
13% |
70% |
Increased emigration is especially worrying to the citizens interviewed, in particularly the emigration of young people.
The following three indicators having been ranked as highly significant are related to the socioeconomic situation which in fact corresponds to the previous results that demonstrated the fact that socioeconomic problems are currently most important. Surveys have shown us that, at the moment, the divide between the rich and the poor is very large. There is a large mass of impoverished people at the bottom of the social scale, with no groups (strata) in the middle.
The perception of the future from the aspect of the socioeconomic situation is extremely pessimistic. In particular, according to the responses from interviewees, huge divisions by strata and huge differences in well-being will lead to the increase of the sense of uncertainty among citizens as well as to increased crime rates. Misery, uncertainty and crime will give rise to the feeling of aggression in society that in turn may lead to social riots.
Despite the problems, citizens believe that it is hardly possible that the state will be dissolved. The living conditions in the
SECTION 4: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOCIAL PROBLEMS BY ETHNIC AFFILIATION
Differences in answers are interesting in terms of the Macedonian and Albanian ethnicity. The views of members of other ethnic communities (Turks, Romas, Vlachs, Serbs, and others) to a great extent correspond to the views expressed by the Macedonians.
Ranking problems by their current status viewed from the Macedonian and from the Albanian perspective.
Table 11
| Problem ranking by significance for ethnic Macedonians |
% |
Problem ranking by significance for ethnic Albanians |
% |
|||
| 11 |
High unemployment rate |
91% |
Slow implementation of the Framework Agreement |
73% |
||
| 22 |
Organized crime increase |
85% |
High unemployment rate |
69% |
||
| 33 |
Acts of Albanian armed gangs |
82% |
Corruption of public officials |
67% |
||
| 44 |
Corruption of public officials |
81% |
Poor protection of the rights of employees and the unemployed |
67% |
||
| 55 |
Disrespect of laws |
80% |
Citizen social insecurity |
66%[1] |
||
Unemployment is the most significant problem for Macedonians; for Albanians, it is the slow implementation of the Framework Agreement. It is obvious that there is great discrepancy in relation to importance attached to this issue by Macedonians and by Albanians. For Macedonians, the problem with the implementation of the Framework Agreement is the last ranked in the list of problems; for Albanians, it is ranked first. The implementation of the Framework Agreement for Albanians means realization of their rights and achieving equality in various spheres of social life; for Macedonians, it implies a kind of usurpation and limitation of their rights and freedoms.
Immediately after that, a tendency of approximation of views corresponding to the overall distribution i.e. the highlighted significance of problems in the socioeconomic context is noted. These are common for both ethnicities.
Problems to which Macedonians attributed very high significance include problems in the field of security related to the increase of organized crime, and the acts of Albanian armed gangs. Macedonians are much more worried about the security situation than the Albanians.
The category of very important problems with Albanian interviewees includes problems from the socioeconomic sphere (high unemployment rate, corruption, poor protection of rights of employees and the unemployed). As for the significance of these problems attributed by Macedonian and by Albanian interviewees, there is no major difference noted, indicating the fact that these problems are given priority by both ethnicities.
In this group of very important problems we have noted a division between the two ethnicities regarding two problems. For Macedonians, high importance is attributed to the huge quantities of illegal weapons and the insufficient control of state security forces over the whole territory of the
With Albanians, problems related to the acts of Albanian armed gangs are listed last in the list by importance; with Macedonians, such problems are listed on the high third place.
For Macedonians, a problem having low importance is the issue of introducing quotas in employment of ethnic minority members. In view of high unemployment rate, interventions in the employment sphere by political decisions causes the feeling of being deprived of rights with the majority population.
The problem of insufficient control over the state border to Kosovo, for Albanian interviewees is a problem ranked next to last (low importance).
SECTION 5: HOW CAN SOCIETAL PROBLEMS BE RESOLVED?
Table 12. Priorities for overcoming problems from Macedonian and Albanian viewpoint
| "I completely agree" percentage |
Ethnic Macedonians |
Ethnic Albanians |
||
| 11 |
Encouraging employment |
89% |
Urgent resolution of the status of Kosovo |
83% |
| 22 |
Strict sanctions for corrupt public officials |
86% |
Complete implementation of the Framework Agreement |
77% |
| 33 |
Strengthening anti-corruption measures |
84% |
Strengthening anti-corruption measures |
71% |
| 44 |
Economic development strategy |
82% |
Strict sanctions for corrupt public officials |
70% |
| 55 |
Strengthened control in the former crisis regions |
82% |
Encouraging employment |
69% |
With both ethnic communities there is an overlap in the measures concerning the priorities that the Government is to undertake in order to address the current problems in the following areas: employment, anti-corruption measures, and economic development measures. Although the interviewees from both ethnicities have ranked these measures differently, on the top-six-list of priorities, they have not given the same portion of importance to this group of measures.
The Macedonians again have given the paramount importance to employment, i.e., encouraging employment, which the Albanians have ranked on the fifth place. It is obvious that the problem with unemployment and the need for undertaking certain measures to resolve this acute problem impacts more the Macedonians than the Albanians.
Both the Macedonians and the Albanians have ranked the need for strengthening anti-corruption measures on the third place. Thus it becomes obvious that the problem with the corruption does not make ethnic distinctions and equally impacts both Macedonians and Albanians.
Another measure from the economic and societal sphere important for the both ethnicities is the need for the adoption of a strategy for economic development.
In this group of priority measure there is a great discrepancy concerning the importance given by the Macedonians and the Albanians for the specific measures. Namely, the Macedonians have ranked as priority measures the ones regarding the resolution of the problems in the area of security. Thus, on the fourth and fifth place they have ranked the need to strengthen control in the former crisis regions and the campaign for collecting illegal weapons. This is quite logical considering the fact that the problems in the security sphere were highly ranked by the Macedonian interviewees also on the list of the most current societal problems. As opposed to them, for the Albanians these are obviously not priority measures, since they have ranked them on the 31st, i.e., 34th place on the bottom of the list.
The resolution of the status of Kosovo has certain implications not only for
The positions of the interviewees from the Macedonian and Albanian community concerning certain measures do coincide, and are close on the priority lists. Thus, agricultural development is equally important for both Macedonians and Albanians. It is obvious that the citizens from both ethnicities have seen a possibility for the resolution of their economic problems in agriculture.
Conclusion: From the analysis of the data collected from this section of the survey, a conclusion can be drawn that the implementation of the measures for encouraging employment, economic development and fight against corruption are of highest interest for both ethnicities. Concerning the measures for improving the condition in the security sphere and the implementation of the Framework Agreement, there are completely opposite positions. The Macedonians believe that the resolution of the security problems is a priority, whereas for the Albanians it is the implementation of the Framework Agreement.
The ones competent for undertaking appropriate measures for the resolution of the problems should take into consideration citizens' opinion regarding the priority of certain measures, especially the need/measure for encouraging employment.
| Macedonian interviewees' opinion |
% |
Albanian interviewees' opinion |
% |
|
| 1 |
Increased migration of young people from |
87 |
Increased insecurity of the citizens |
54 |
| 2 |
Increased insecurity of the citizens |
85 |
Deepening the gap between the poor and the rich |
54 |
| 3 |
Deepening the gap between the poor and the rich |
83 |
Increased terrorist acts |
54 |
| 4 |
Increased crime activities |
80 |
Decreasing citizens' interest for voting on the next elections |
54 |
| 5 |
Increased terrorist acts |
77 |
Increased migration of young people from |
51 |
As it can be seen from this table, the perception of Macedonian interviewees of
The following four indicators that have been highly ranked are connected with the economic and the security situation which is in compliance with the previous results that led us to the conclusion that the socio-economic and the security problems are the most important ones in the state.
Concerning the Albanian interviewees, they have listed the following top-five-indicators: increased insecurity, wider gap between the rich and the poor, increased terrorist acts, decreased citizens' interest for voting on the next elections and increased migration of young people.
Both Macedonians and Albanians are obviously not afraid of people from other states moving in considering the fact that
Compared to last year's research, performed by the Institute for Sociological, Political and Juridical Research, one can gain an insight in the most probable events that might take place if the acute problems are resolved. It should also be stressed that the context of the research performed is not identical, and thus last year's research was concentrated on the causes and consequences of the armed conflict:
2002
| "Highly probable" percentage |
All |
Macedonians |
Albanians |
Other |
| Increased poverty |
77 |
78 |
74 |
74 |
| Increased violence |
62 |
68 |
43 |
62 |
| Immigration of the young population |
61 |
64 |
50 |
64 |
| No free and fair elections |
57 |
59 |
45 |
64 |
| Low percentage of people voting on the forthcoming elections |
49 |
50 |
39 |
59 |
| Immigration from Kosovo |
32 |
40 |
6 |
32 |
Conclusion: Concerning the prospects of the Republic of Macedonia, if the indicated problems are not resolved, according to the Macedonians will result with probable immigration of young people abroad, whereas for the Albanians is the increased citizens' insecurity. Other possible scenarios beside the two already mentioned for both the Macedonians and the Albanians are the increased gap between the rich and the poor, increased terrorist acts and the possibility for a social uprising.
Such pessimistic positions concerning the prospects of the
[1] The same percentage of answers to the alternative very significant problem was supplemented by the distribution of answers to other assessments (moderately significant etc.).