CITIZENS PLATFORM

MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT OF THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE GOVERNMENTAL PROGRAMME

On the session of the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia, dated 1^st November 2002, Branko Crvenkovski, in the capacity of the mandatory of the new government, inter alia, stated: “To this end, I would like to call upon the public, the media, and the non-governmental sector to continue to be the “on-call” conscious of our society and of the administrative institutions”

The non-governmental sector embraced the challenge three months ago by getting involved in the project “Civic Platform for Peace and Stability”[1]. The project was initiated with a workshop to assess and compare the priorities of the political parties laid down in their manifestos with those of the citizens determined on the basis of the available public surveys. The process involved 33 non-governmental activists and experts, and the output was a document titled “Priorities vs. Priorities”. Public events followed in Skopje, Veles, Prilep, Kicevo, Stip, Kumanovo, Tetovo, Bitola, Struga and Strumica, where more than 500 citizens were given the opportunity to voice their opinion about the foundations of peace and stability in the country. All that was transformed into the document “Civic Platform for Peace and Stability”, that lists the priorities, suggests the approach and identifies the responsibility. This document was sent to all political parties prior to the elections.

But we did not stop there. Without an invitation, we continued to monitor just how much the government heard the voice of the citizens, and to what extent it fulfilled its promises.

This document summarizes what was requested, promised and what was done. In a systematic way, the document lays down the findings of the experts from the respective fields included in the Civic Platform for Peace and Stability such as: Legal State - Nedzat Elezi, Judge in Primary Court Kicevo; Economic Development - Prof. Ph.D. Saban Prevala, Vice-governor of NBRM; Social Issues - Prof. Ph.D. Ljupco Pecijareski, Economic Faculty, Prilep; Security Situation - Gojko Eftovski, journalist, Tetovo; Local Self-government – M.A. Miroslav Stojanov, Bitola; and Improving International Affairs: Kalina Miljovska, EU trainer, Skopje. The manifestos of the political parties constituting the government were used as the basis, together with the address of the Prime Minister, the publicly announced commitments of governmental representatives, and current affairs news items presented in the media.

The assessment and monitoring of the first 100 days of the government is a document for all stakeholders in the Republic of Macedonia. With this document we are trying, as non-governmental organizations, to contribute and participate in public policy making in the Republic of Macedonia.

As far as the invitation is concerned, we fully accept it, and we will continue to be “on-call”.

In the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability, the following goals for the time frame coinciding with the mandate of the new government were adopted:

The part of the programme of government treating the development of the legal State includes the priorities previously determined in the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability. Thus, the programme of the government, inter alia, covers the following goals:

- consistent and full enforcement of the Constitution and the laws on the whole territory of the Republic of Macedonia;

In addition, the programme insists upon credible institutions of the system by strengthening the independence of the judiciary and by improving human rights.

Within the framework of goals related to economic development of the State and the welfare of its citizens, the following is required in the Republic of Macedonia:

In addition, budget resources need to be allocated and spent in a restrictive and transparent manner. The development component of budget resources, however, must not be neglected.

Providing conditions for the development of private businesses and agriculture is seen as an opportunity for future increase of employment and improvement of the standard of living of the citizens. Hence, the need of putting in place simple and quick procedures for establishing small and medium-sized enterprises, reduction of fees, benefits for national and foreign investors and securing favourable loans.

Needless to say that other goals were also specified alongside the documents attached to the Platform such as: higher economic growth, investments, reform of the banking system, amendments in the fiscal policy, completing privatization of enterprises, amending foreign exchange policy, further development of industry etc.

From the viewpoint of the document “Priorities Vs. Priorities”, drafted within the framework of the project “Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability”, the basic priorities in the sphere of social welfare appear to be:

- strategic plan for the elimination of social decline and poverty (reduction of poverty);

In the absence of a published text on the operational programme of the government for the period 2002-2006 in determining the fact to what extent these priorities have been taken into consideration by the government, the address of the mandatory of the new government of the Republic of Macedonia, Crvenkovski, was used. According to this document, which is a relevant indicator for future activities of the government, the priorities anticipated in the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability have evidently been incorporated to a large extent.

In his address, the Prime Minister, inter alia, proposed the following measures:

- The government of the Republic of Macedonia will, in the first 100 days of its establishment, draft a National Strategy for Improving Employment and Reducing Poverty in cooperation with local and international experts;

- The tax policy of the government will be based on the principles of neutrality and equity;

- The government shall develop social partnership with the Unions for the purpose of providing protection of workers.

No doubt, the previous findings of the Prime Minister clearly indicate an overlap between the priorities for future activities of the government and those of the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability, such as the reduction of the rate of poverty, increasing employment and improving the standard of living and social security of the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia.

Concerning the issue of improving security in the Republic of Macedonia, the assessment of the operational programme of the government of the Republic of Macedonia in the period 2002-2006 only confirms that the contents of the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability has been incorporated and more precisely defined. From the 9 priority goals and objectives, three relate to this sphere. They are defined as:

- restoring peace in the country alongside with security of citizens and property in all parts of the territory of Macedonia;

- returning displaced persons into their homes, urgent reconstruction of their family houses and the commercial capacities destroyed in last year’s armed conflict;

- restoring confidence between citizens of different ethnic affiliation and eliminating the feeling of discrimination, fear and mistrust.

In a separate chapter, Chapter Seven of the Programme, the issues referred to match those in CPPS, especially those on building interethnic confidence, adoption of the other laws stemming from the Framework Agreement, implementation of the Law on Arms Seizure, equal representation of ethnic communities in security structures and other programme goals. Even the mandatory referred to the issue of restoring peace, security and safety as the most important priority in his address.

One of the programme goals defined in the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability was the development of local self-government and decentralization.

The Law on Local Self-government was adopted by the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia on the session dated 24th January 2002. The law treats the relations and competencies on a municipal level, civic participation in the process of proposing and making decisions, as well as the relations between municipal authorities and central government.

The position of the citizens in terms of decentralization of government stems from the elementary right to be involved in a large number of activities related to the decision-making processes, especially if they are local problems and issues. This is important because as tax-payers citizens not only have to fill the budget of the State, but they also have the right to make decisions where and how their money needs to be used.

The document titled "Priorities Vs. Priorities" shows that the citizens stress the need of greater independence and autonomy of local communities, as well as the need for greater participation. In addition, they emphasize the need to "wrap up the legislation in this field and start with its effective implementation" as the most important prerequisite for successful development of local self-government. Similar findings are included in the document from the project "Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability".

The Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability advocates for improving the position of the Republic of Macedonia on the international scene, especially bearing in mind the fact that it was the first country in the region to embark on the stabilization and association process and the overall rapprochement towards EU and NATO structures.

When addressing the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia, Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski declared the determination of the new government to integrate with EU, and pointed out that any other approach would be a "historical dead end". The Prime Minister also announced that the work of the new government should not be seen as "a struggle for accomplishing strategic determinations in Brussels, but here in Macedonia."

The Prime Minister noted that EU and NATO integration is a determination of all governments so far, including almost all parties on the Macedonian scene. As a result, the determination will not be just a declaration, but an essential drive.

The fact that after the first 100 days the new government has still not adopted a Programme, neither has it made an assessment of the programme, speaks about the fact that the new government does not have a clear strategy regarding EU and NATO integration as well as for other issues.

REFLECTION OF THE MANIFESTOS OF THE PARTIES IN THE PROGRAMMES OF THE GOVERNMENT

The manifestos of the political parties that constitute the new government coalition have identical positions for some issues, but completely opposed positions for other issues.

Concerning the issue of development of the legal State, SDSM* anticipated restoring the credibility and dignity of administrative institutions, protection of human and minority rights, enforcement of the Constitution and the laws regardless of ethnic, religious or political affiliation of citizens, independent judiciary based upon the fundamental principle of autonomous judicial power and implementation of the project for an independent court budget. An effective fight against corruption that implies a strategy against organized crime and elimination of corruption was also foreseen. SDSM plans to openly face the issue of nepotism in the public sector, respect the legal State and rule of law on the whole territory of the Republic of Macedonia.

The partner in the government, LDP*, advocated for reforms in public administration, but at the same time to take care of those who will be made redundant, as well as for professional public administration developed along the principles of competence, accountability, transparency and non-partisanship. LDP, of course, includes the development of a strategy against corruption, while DUI* stood for equality for all citizens before the laws, decentralization of government and development of local self-government, by means of full implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement.

A significant part of the manifestos of the winning political parties became part of the Programme/address of the new Government that was adopted by the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia on the day of establishment of the Government.

In other words, what was already pointed out by the Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability (first in the manifestos of SDSM and LDP, and after that in the Programme of the new government) acquired an operational dimension. The economic sphere has identified the following priorities:

- budget expenditure focusing on development, instead of exhausting the economy;

Due to the fact that the priorities of the government in resolving the problems in the social sphere have been previously listed, we will focus on their compatibility with the priorities contained in the election manifestos of the political parties participating in the work of the government.

The Social-democratic Union of Macedonia, in terms of resolving social issues, proposed the reduction of unemployment as the priority goal in its election manifesto. To achieve that the government proposes a whole set of measures that could result with quick and tangible effects. Such measures are: tax holidays for employers and sole proprietors, securing micro-loans under favourable conditions for start-up family businesses, self-employment, strengthening the support of small and medium-sized enterprises, providing technical assistance for structural changes of commercial undertakings, additional tax relieves, credit and salary subsides in employment of disabled persons, public initiatives for municipal infrastructure projects, environment etc., training programmes, both for in-service and pre-service staff, developing specific skills or transferring know-how.

In addition, SDSM’s election manifesto clearly states: “We have a national programme to fight poverty”. Namely, SDSM stresses that poverty cannot be eliminated overnight. The process of social decline however, must not continue to create a minority of wealthy people, on the one hand, and a majority of poor people, on the other.

To successfully implement its National Programme Against Poverty, the government deems necessary to act in direction of resolving social issues (unemployment, social decline, poverty), as well as economic and health problems. At the same time, social assistance must reach the right hands.

The Liberal-democratic party, in terms of resolving social issues, proposes a National Agreement between the Government, Unions and Employers. Such an “Agreement would be an effort to encourage labour mobility and flexibility, ensure new job opportunities, eliminate “off the books employment”, i.e. registration and insurance of employees”. At the same time, such an agreement would lay down the obligations of each partner separately.

In its election manifesto, the Liberal-democratic party proposes an appropriate social policy to mitigate and ultimately overcome poverty.

The Democratic Union for Integration pays less attention to the social issues in its election manifesto. Namely, by analyzing its election manifesto, the party explicitly states that with the development of a contemporary economic system foreign investments will be guaranteed, which will lead to inevitable reduction of poverty.

Evidently, the level of correlation between the election manifestos of the parties in power and the programme of the government regarding the resolution of social issues is quite high. However, it should be stressed that the election manifestos of the parties, especially those of the Social-democratic Union of Macedonia and the Liberal-Democratic Party, elaborate social issues in much more details compared to the general programme of the government, i.e. the address of the Prime Minister. In that respect, it appears to be necessary to wait for the announced (but not yet drafted) detailed programme of the government in order to have a much more realistic understanding of the extent to which the specific proposals for overcoming social problems from the election manifestos will be incorporated in the programme of the government.

The manifestos of the parties as part of the coalition “For Macedonia Together”, which consists of 10 political parties from different ethnic communities, most influential being SDSM and LDP, on the one hand, and the Democratic Union for Integration, on the other hand as the winning Albanian ethnic party, have a different viewpoint on this issue. Obviously, the issue of peace and security for the coalition “For” is clear and the goals have been modified within the programme of the government, almost entirely, including the issue of ethnic representation within security structures. On the basis of the material available, DUI focuses on the composition of the security forces that “do not reflect the ethnic composition of the population” and advocates the “inclusion of a larger number of Albanians in the defence and security structures of the State”, as part of the obligations stemming from the Ohrid Framework Agreement.

To that end, the government programme calls for “capable, professional, well-trained and well-equipped security forces that will reflect the ethnic composition of the population”. The Prime Minister, in the capacity of the mandatory, in his address, treated the issue of peace and security of the country as top priority and highlighted the fact that it was the “first task of the new government. The Prime Minister categorically stressed that many things in the country depended upon the full implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement, which for this government will be of utmost priority. “We will stick to every work and comma. We shall implement everything as agreed. Nothing less, nothing more… We must understand that Macedonia belongs to all of us equally, and that no one has the exclusive right of ownership”.

The political parties in the government did not pay much attention to the development of local self-government compared to the attention given to other segments of their manifestos (security, economy, social protection, education etc.). In their election manifestos, the parties promised that they will listen to the voice of the people and that "SDSM will encourage citizens to take direct participation in exercising the competencies devolved to the local self-government". In addition, the parties promised the citizens participation in crucial issues significant for the decentralization process. On the other hand, for LDP, empowered local structures will open "opportunities for all citizens to participate in the decision-making process at a local level". The election manifesto of the Democratic Union for Integration merely touches upon decentralization of government and very briefly states that DUI will advocate for "decentralization of government and the development of local self-government".

In the field of international relations, in the absence of an adopted programme of the government, the only thing that can be used for comparison purposes is the address of the Prime Minister. In that respect, it should be noted that the party manifestos are absolutely compatible with the address of the Prime Minister of the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia. It is a fact however, that the position of the Republic of Macedonia internationally, and the integration process with EU and NATO, in all of the manifestos of the parties, even the address of the Prime Minister, is reflected with a few declarative sentences at the end of the manifestos or the address, stating the strategic determination of the respective party/government for integrating into these structures.

Without the intention to justify certain activities of the new government, inevitably one needs to mention that the new government of the Republic of Macedonia had to face difficulties inherited from the previous government in its early stage of establishment. Specifically, the government was faced with thousands of "hungry" workers, the problem of loss-making companies, the issue of corruption, organized crime, illicit drug smuggling and trafficking people etc. In the mean time the government was expected to implement the Framework Agreement, the census of the population, households and dwellings; negotiate a new Stand-by arrangement with IMF and other strategic tasks. In the very beginning, i.e., in the first 100 days, the Union of Macedonia caused additional headache to the government by threatening to go on general strike – not to mention the protests of the so-called "lions", defenders, and generally the reserve military and police troops with their demands related to the armed conflict, as well as a whole set of unresolved educational problems etc. However, the new government managed to constitute and consolidate itself despite these disadvantages.

In the past 100 days, the legal State operated mainly providing possibilities and conditions for more efficient development of the legal State, although sectors where the legal State does not work still exist, more specifically, the security and safety of citizens, where the Constitution and the laws cannot be fully applied.

Some of the ministries such as the Ministry of Internal Affairs, could not fully control certain regions to find perpetrators of crime on the basis of evidence. Therefore, wanted circulars were issued although the Ministry knew where the perpetrators were hiding on the territory of Macedonia. Nevertheless, in this segment there seems to be an improvement, in terms of experience and performance of the former government.

In the past 100 days, the government did not accomplish results on the issue of non-party and non-political affiliation of public administration bodies, since people are still selected on the basis of their affiliation to specific political parties, disregarding their professional performance and capacity. Nevertheless, LDP needs to be appraised for the steps undertaken immediately after the response of the citizens, although, regretfully, SDSM did not follow suit.

In the past 100 days, the government demonstrated results in the fight against organized crime and elimination of corruption – enhanced control and audits, especially of the privatization process – resulting with a large number of investigation procedures. Further activities related to the issue of elimination of organized crime also took place, especially in discovering and eradicating illicit trafficking in people.

Such activities need to continue on the part of the government. However, attention should be paid to ensure that the persons against whom investigation procedures are initiated are not picked selectively. Procedures must not be limited in time – actions should be taken against acts committed before 1998 – nor related to the ethnic or party affiliation of the suspects.

Insufficient adherence and application of international agreements ratified by the Republic of Macedonia can also be noticed in the past 100 days. Such an example is the postponement of cooperation with the Hague Tribunal.

Concerning the implementation of the Framework Agreement, the government drafted a Timetable for the adoption of primary and secondary legislation. The Timetable however, does not correspond with that agreed in the Framework Agreement, which is understandable considering the delays since the signing of the Agreement.

The new government determined the basic directions of the macro-economic policy for 2003. Namely, an Action Plan for the implementation of the Framework Agreement was drafted and adopted, anti-corruption activities were initiated and the long-expected Stand-by arrangement was signed with IMF representatives, creating conditions for attracting foreign investments.

In the course of the first 100 days, the prices remained stable together with the foreign exchange rate of the denar, while the foreign currency reserves were sustained at a level of 800 million dollars. One can say that industrial output and foreign trade are picking up, but they are still insufficient to ensure more dynamic growth.

Since returning into power for the main partner in the government (SDSM) is somewhat of a challenge, it is normal to expect that the period to come is a chance to accomplish the goals projected in the programme of the government. In that respect, the government must “refresh” its personnel with new human resources as soon as possible to ensure that happening.

The assessment that the government did not cope well in the negotiations with IMF representatives deserves attention. Unable to apply a more flexible fiscal policy to ensure larger budget revenue, the government had to agree to increase the VAT rate of products with lower rates. That will certainly solve the budget deficit for 2003, but on the other hand it will have negative implications on the standard of living of the population, which means further impoverishment.

In addition, nothing much has been done to attract direct foreign investments that could compensate for the deficit of own accumulation. Indeed, the vulnerable political situation is still an obstacle for inflow of foreign capital. Yet again, without new investments, little can be done to increase the output of the existing and the establishment of new capacities that could lead to an increase in employment and mitigate the negative impact of the increased VAT rate and decrease poverty.

Bearing in mind the fact that the main priority of the government is the reduction of poverty and unemployment, the assessment of the first 100 days of the government is based on the findings related to these problems. In that respect, special attention should be paid to three significant documents that, to a large extent, determine the direction of activities on the part of the government in relations to the previously anticipated social issues. Those documents are: National Strategy for Reduction of Poverty in the Republic of Macedonia, Social Agreement and the Stand-by Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund.

In terms of this important document, what needs to be noted is the fact that both the political parties in their manifestos and the government in its programme announced their own National Strategy for Poverty Reduction in the Republic of Macedonia. Due to the short period, however, the government was not able to develop its own Strategy. The current Strategy was drafted by the Strategy Committee, chaired by the Minister of Finance of the former government. The Strategy was developed in line with the requirements of World Bank in the period 1999–2000 (Interim version), and 2000–2002 (current version). The Strategy hasn’t been officially adopted by the government, and serves as the starting point for developing operational strategies for overcoming poverty and unemployment.

Now, if the current Strategy is the starting point for overcoming poverty and unemployment and serves as the road map for determining the future steps of the government in the attempt to resolve those problems, very briefly we would like to point down our opinion on the directions of upgrading this Strategy.

The Strategy should, and can, be upgraded further, by applying the pluralistic methodological approach that takes into account the consumption and the income with the same level of relevance in calculating the poverty rate. At the same time, more attention deserves one of the basic generators of poverty – unemployment – with additional assessment of frictional, structural and cyclic unemployment. In addition, the phenomenon unequality demands greater attention since it is an inseparable element of the assessment of the level of poverty.

Due to the fact that the data used in the Strategy is from the year 2000, we believe that the standard of living of a small fraction of the population in Macedonia that directly does not belong to impoverished population, but could soon become part, needs to be reassessed.

20 December 2002, the government of the Republic of Macedonia signed a Social Cooperation Agreement (social partnership) with the Unions of Macedonia. In light of this assessment, the agreement affirms the following social priorities:

- Creating conditions and prerequisites for new jobs and for reducing unemployment;

This step shows explicitly that the government is determined to fulfil its pre-election promises. The evident match between the previously listed priorities, those in the manifestos of the parties, and the priorities reiterated in the address of the Prime Minister is the best indication of that commitment. The Social Agreement is a positive step that came about in the first 100 days of the government. We need to see to what extent it will be implemented in the period to come.

7^th February 2003, the government signed the long-expected arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. The advantage of such an arrangement is direct IMF support worth 27 million dollars, but also the release of the necessary donor funds of approximately 126 million dollars. The disadvantages however, stem from the amended VAT rate – the cost to Macedonian citizens for this arrangement. Namely, the amendment of the value added tax rate stipulates a reduction of the general rate of 19% to 18%. However, a large group of goods that were subject to 5% tax rate will shift to the general tax rate of 18%. In other words, with the exception of the basic foodstuffs, the price of the goods and services will increase and that will have a direct impact on the standard of living of the citizens.

The general view of the security in the country in the first 100 days of the government vary from “unstable” to “vulnerable” and finally to “relatively stable”. Yet, a statement should be made that the security is not on a satisfactory level. That, however, is due to many reasons and events, especially in the Western part of Macedonia or more precisely, in the broader region of the country that was affected by the armed conflict in 2001. The legal State does not function in some places in this region, thus the security and safety of the citizens is hardly guaranteed, peace does not prevail fully, and some parts cannot be controlled by the security forces. The Police and the ethnically mixed teams are not present in all settlements. Some places are still limited for movement and they are secured with organized convoys to achieve the necessary effects. For such regions, full control is still just a plan, including the plans for building or equipping police stations. All that has a negative impact on the attitude of the population that, regardless of the ethnic affiliation, demands the presence of police forces to ensure security.

The consequences of the semi-control of these parts of the country can be seen in the on-going activities of criminal gangs that operate in groups of 5 to 10 persons. Lately their number is increasing, and so are the threats to security. Murders happen on regular basis, as well as wounding and harassing citizens, burglaries, and re-demolishing reconstructed houses and facilities, thefts, kidnappings, blackmailing etc.

Still, there seems to be a qualitative difference in the approach of identifying the peace and security problems between the current and the former government. Concrete positive shifts are also visible, although the results are far from what the citizens hope to see.

In the security structures, as a result of the efforts to implement the Ohrid Agreement, representative from the ethnic communities are placed on the highest positions – deputy ministers, State Secretaries, and Chiefs of Police Stations. Apart from that, in the past 100 days, by means of training courses, specific results have been accomplished in terms of “equal presentation of ethnic communities”. This is especially true for the Albanians. The national structure of the security forces has significantly improved, while the measures applied by the government and the line ministries will even more correspond to the national structure of the population. In this period, however, two situations are prevailing: inappropriate representation of other ethnic communities, especially Roma, and taking in inappropriate candidates in the security forces. Namely, concessions are made in the selection of candidates from the ethnic communities that previously need to undergo special training.

The programme of the government avoids the use of “para-military structures”. In CPPS, in the part related to security, this is a significant issue. The difference lies in the understanding of whether the para-military formations have, actually, disbanded after the disbandment of ONA*, or are they still present as criminal groups – as they are usually referred to by the official State bodies in the last 100 days. Reports from the field talk about well-armed mobile groups of 10, and even more representatives of the disbanded ONA. They act as a para-military formation, thus the threat they pose to peace and stability in specific places and regions must not be undermined. Even with the qualification “criminal gangs”, prompt and efficient action is missing. The consequences are: large number of casualties, murders and wounds, thefts, threats, blackmails, demolished facilities (above all reconstructed houses) in almost all crisis regions, as well as limited movement and traffic – seen through the impossible mission of restoring the railway route Skopje - Tetovo - Gostivar - Kicevo.

The local population demands prompt and more efficient action for these criminal gangs (para-military formations), while the government is obliged to listen to the voice of the people, especially when it is not identified with ethnicity. This means that the results here are visible, but not complete.

To enable the security forces to undertake all measures to restore peace and security, the civil population must be previously disarmed. The estimate of the illegal arms in the hands of the citizens is from 600-700 thousand pieces, or in average, every third inhabitant in Macedonia possess arms. The act of disarmament must not be done in an unsystematic way. It must be organized and planned to the maximum, regulated by law, and it must involve the international factors.

In the last 100 days of the new government, the need for such a law has been identified and discussed. The Parliament followed suit. Although the Law on disarmament was treated as a priority due to its overall effects related to the control over the whole State, nothing has been done in practice. Delaying the adoption of such a law creates grave consequences. Experience from other countries make it clear that the time necessary to collect the arms is from 3 to 18 months. That means that the current government, by postponing the adoption of the legal framework, only delays the activity.

Although one and a half years have past since the official termination of military activities, Macedonia is faced with the problem of returning the displaced persons. According to the data from various centres, hotels, private accommodations etc., approximately 8000 persons are still outside of their homes. Several reasons hamper their return such as: non-functional legal State and alleged peace in the crisis regions, feeling of being unsafe and insecure, and further threats and criminal acts on the part of various armed criminal gangs.

The issue of returning the displaced persons is one of the nine priorities in the Programme of the government. The Prime Minister, on the occasion of meeting displaced persons from Aracinovo, said that “the purpose of this government is to return all internally displaced persons to their homes, and we are working on that, and we will not give up regardless of all the obstacles faced”. On the same meeting, the Prime Minister concluded that “the process was not sufficiently successful and efficient up to now”.

The situation is almost the same. There are no results, nor is there an organized and planned programme for returning the displaced persons from the collective centres. Citizens are reluctant to spend money for the stay of displaced persons instead of investing in improving conditions for their return. The national interest of returning the displaced persons in the homes is not happening in practice. The problem remains an open issue without any visible concrete measures. The return of the displaced persons is inevitably related to the reconstruction of the demolished commercial undertakings. This process however, hasn’t even started.

This government did not express readiness, at least not so far, to clarify the dilemma about the destiny of the kidnapped and disappeared persons. In the last four months, one meeting took place between the Prime Minister and the families of the 12 kidnapped persons, and one meeting between the Minister of Internal Affairs and the relatives of the 6 disappeared persons. Up to date, there is only a promise that “everything will be done to clarify the destiny of the kidnapped”, while the claims that “most of the documentation on the kidnapped has apparently disappeared from the archives of MIA” does not necessarily argue in favour of the inefficiency demonstrated so far.

Practically, one could argue that the programme of the government related to the “destiny of the kidnapped persons and the responsibility arising thereof, as well as the destiny of the disappeared persons” has not even started. The mystery of the 12 kidnapped Macedonians, all from the Tetovo region, and the disappeared 6 Albanians, remains unclear, and that has an impact on the attitude of the citizens and the security situation in the region.

Violence against the innocent population continues in the country. Criminal gangs are behaving violently. The civil population, regardless of their ethnic background, does not support them. In the ethnically clean territories this violence takes the form of extortion, blackmail, plunder, prostitution etc., and that undermines the general impression of the efficiency of the security forces and control over the whole territory of the country. Such violence, arson and pressures however, can be noticed in ethnically mixed environments as well.

The purpose of such actions are to create ethnically clean territories. The programme activities of the government for “preventing any form of violence or pressures of ethnic cleansing in individual settlements or parts of the territory of Macedonia” has not produced concrete results.

The process of decentralization, development and functioning of local self-government was one of the priorities of the citizens in terms of general functioning of the State and administrative bodies. One of the problems faced by ordinary citizen on daily basis is the centralized State with power concentrated on a national level. Therefore, one of priorities of the government in the first 100 days should have been strengthening the functions and competencies of local self-government, i.e. municipalities. Although the Law on Local Self-government was adopted, there are still additional laws that regulate this field that need to be adopted. For that purpose, the Ministry of Local Self-government developed an Operational Plan for the implementation of the Framework Agreement. According to the Ministry of Local Self-government, the laws stemming from the Framework Agreement, such as the law on public enterprises, working relations, courts, passport, Ombudsman, execution procedure, secondary education, primary education, culture, use of symbols of communities, State Judicial Council and law on use of languages should be submitted to the Assembly until the end of April.

On the other hand, in almost all municipalities, new people are on board, most of them representatives of the coalition "For Macedonia Together". In some municipalities the newly appointed top officials in the regional offices do not have the required level of education or expertise and competences for that particular post or field. In some cases the basic criterion for appointment seems to be the activity of the person within his/her political party.

Another obvious tendency in many institutions is the returning of staff that was posted in the institutions prior to 1998 elections. This rightfully doubts the readiness of the government to undertake measure for more radical changes on local and national level, with the excuse that young, professional and competent people are appointed on top positions to introduce qualitative changes.

In some institutions nepotism can be noticed. This has been alerted several times. Surveys show, for example in Bitola, that the government must fight this phenomenon, and avoid putting powerful people on local and national level demonstrating power and authority.

We shall see how the Ministry of Internal Affairs will handle the ethnically mixed patrols in the crisis region in the upcoming period. This will also be an issue for the local self-government. The results demonstrated so far are not quite clear to draw specific conclusions.

Looking back at the NGOs and how they were treated by the local self-government, it should be pointed out that mandatory Crvenkovski, in his address, emphasized the importance of the media, the citizens and the NGO sector. In some way this gives weight to NGOs and enables them to act as correctors and initiators of democratic processes, and a respectable factor that always considers the interests of ordinary people. Current treatment of NGOs however, by all levels of government, shows that NGOs are insufficiently involved in the fight against corruption, disarmament, nepotism and unemployment. They lack coordination, especially in the segments related to the development of local government.

To assess what has been implemented and promised in the first 100 days of the government at this point is quite difficult, since the process is long-term and the time distance, practically, has no bearing.

It is important to notice however, in terms of EU and NATO rapprochement, especially EU, that the process is such that it could not be implemented or declared by only one member from any government, nor can only one member of the government be responsible for such a process. EU rapprochement means developing a strategy in all fields of society, starting from a functional legal State, economic system and finance reforms, health care, judiciary, internal affairs, defence, and all the way to culture, environmental protection and agriculture. This is why monitoring cannot be limited only to one field, but it must cover the overall work and activities of the government.

In the first 100 days the government demonstrated the intention to introduce order in the international affairs of the Republic of Macedonia. Yet, no measures have been undertaken to indicate that representing Macedonia in the world is an issue of national interest.

The position of the Prime Minister that the strategy for resolving the dispute with Greece related to the use of the constitutional name of the Republic of Macedonia should not be discussed publicly deserves respect, however it created the impression, at least publicly, that there is a conflict between the President of the State and the government. The absence of an appointed negotiator and public debates, throw a shadow on the cohabitation efforts, and create the impression that Macedonia does not really have a strategy to strengthen its negotiating position.

The moves of the Foreign Affairs Minister - revoking ambassadors for poor performance; auditing Embassies and announcing the adoption of a Law on Diplomacy are necessary, but not sufficient to conclude that Macedonia has a consistent foreign policy and stable President – Government relations. This is additionally confirmed by the appointment of new Ambassadors, but even more by the procedure of defining the Macedonian role in the Iraqi crisis.

Fortunate circumstance was the choice of the Minister responsible for European integrations. From her media statements one can conclude that she is fully aware of the state of affairs, and proved to be a good realistic analyst, ready to work hard and take a serious approach towards EU rapprochement. However, as mentioned above, one person cannot take Macedonia to the European Union.

In terms of EU rapprochement, most important are the criteria adopted by the European Council in Copenhagen in 1997, those being:

- functional legal State and respect for democracy as the basic principle for the functioning of the State;

- functional economic system which can stand up to the competition of the European market; and

It seems that the term "approximation of legislation", used by politicians, is often seen as a criterion to measure how close Macedonia is to the European Union. This is a completely wrong approach, since the key criterion is, actually, to what extent the laws in Macedonia are enforced (even the unharmonized ones), because it reflects the level of functioning of the legal state. Laws approximated to EU legislation are totally unnecessary if they are not enforced.

In terms of specific results of the government in the first 100 days, one must mention the following Timetable of Activities of the Sector for European Integration:

- drafting a Timetable for approximation of legislation, planned for end of February 2003;

Hence, the conclusion is that in the first 100 days the government made no specific steps to facilitate the EU integration process. One should also take into consideration the inherited situation within the ministries and sectors, including lack of human resources, which makes it impossible to fulfil the election promises with the respective timetable. Therefore, it is difficult to make actual progress in the first 100 days in terms of EU rapprochement.

Learning from the Croatian and Slovenian experience, countries with which intensive contacts have already been established, can be valuable input in policy-making towards EU, especially since the Macedonian Units for European Integration within the ministries are not very active, with the exception of two-three ministries.

The Defence Law, amended in January 2003, was a concrete step in moving closer to NATO. Meetings took place on national level, communication and exchange of experience was facilitated to accelerate the procedure.

The general opinion, however, is that nothing has been done to identify the forces impeding the integration processes, and even less is done to terminate such actions. Evidently, financially powerful semi-legal structures involved in illicit smuggling are in favour of the border problems – thus hold back the process of EU and NATO integration.

The Executive Summary of the first 100 days points out that although this period is too short to adopt any kind of measures to facilitate more radical changes, the government, nevertheless, offered specific indicators to assess the degree of implementation of pre-election promises so as to evaluate its performance so far.

The Government has to create conditions and mechanisms for undertaking non-partisan activities to depoliticize administrative bodies for the purpose of efficient and full enforcement of the Constitution, the laws and the ratified international agreements on the whole territory of the Republic of Macedonia. Legislative amendments to strengthen independent judiciary are called for, as well as full implementation of the Ohrid Framework and on-going fight against organized crime and corruption. That will create more realistic opportunities for the rule of law and strengthen the legal State, which were advocated by all political parties in their manifestos as well as the government.

Presumably, the new Government will not be satisfied only with stable prices, low inflation and stable foreign exchange rate of the denar. To push the country out of stagnation and reduce poverty and unemployment, the government has to work on:

In the conclusions of the work of the government in the social field, we need to stress that although 100 days is not enough time for undertaking radical changes in this sector, still the government offered concrete indicators for judging the fulfillment of pre-election promises, thus sufficient evaluation indicators exist. Bearing in mind that things are neither black nor white, i.e., the social sector requires an extremely complex process determined by numerous factors (economic, political, ethnic), we will dare, in a strictly explicit form, to give our opinion on the work of the government in the first 100 days.

- put the issue of reduction of poverty and unemployment in the centre of its attention as its primary task;

- by signing the Social Agreement, the government committed itself to a social partnership with the Unions to protect the rights of the workers;

- in the sphere of tax policy, the government terminated the war tax, thus decreased the tax burden;

- announced large savings in public expenditure as an incentive for larger investments in the private sector, that should result with increased employment;

- commenced with the initiative to provide appropriate tax reliefs for employers hiring new employees;

- initiated action to determine and consistently apply the requirements for acquiring the right to social benefits and to regulate the status of unregistered workers who, at the same time, are social assistance beneficiaries.

What the government did not fulfil is directly related with the conclusion of the coerced IMF arrangement. Namely, the arrangement presents direct pressure on the citizens of Macedonia with lower standard of living, which is opposed to the pre-election promises given in light of reduction of poverty. Such an arrangement has its own negative implications since it ultimately denounced the possibility of adopting a special law on lost-making companies that would have stipulated pension privileges for redundant workers.

Finally, it seems that the government did not fully fulfil one of its basic pre-election promises related to social policy, by expressing insufficient understanding to solve the on-going strikes in the Republic of Macedonia with appropriate measures.

The sphere of security, as one of priority areas in the programme of the government and CPPS, can be summarized with the statement that the measures and activities are not appropriate to the needs. The government and administrative bodies face numerous challenges that demand action. Upcoming are activities to solve certain issues, as well as the process of building interethnic confidence such as fulfilling what is publicly preached, and adhering to signed agreements, principles and values of international law - as put forward in the programme of the government.

The opinion polls carried out by the Institute for Social, Political and Judicial Research show that 72% of the interviewed persons trust Branko Crvenkovski’s government. This indicates that despite of all the problems citizens are facing, they trust this government so far.

The government managed to impose itself as a figure of authority and responsibility on national and local level in most of the activities undertaken. This is especially visible in the sectors such as: fight against organised crime, corruption, prostitution, brothels and drug trafficking.

In the period to come, more attention needs to be paid to the issue of decentralization and strengthening of local self-government, especially in the human resources department, i.e., hiring people regardless of their political party affiliation.

The period to come will also be very important for the sectors that will have to gradually devolve competencies to the local level such as: education, health care, culture, privatization of early childhood centres etc., as stipulated by the Law on Local Self-government.

This assessment takes us back to the beginning - total absence of critical and constructive analysis, lack of strategy and lack of institutional memory. Regardless of how insignificant it is, continuity must be observed. Serious efforts of putting in place functional legal State where the law, even not approximated, is respected by all, and all over the territory are required. Approximation of legislation is just a formal operation which is an important, but not an exclusive, criterion for EU rapprochement.

In this respect, Prime Minister Crvenkovski’s statement in his address of the Assembly of the Republic of Macedonia that the struggle for integrating Macedonia in EU and NATO is a battle that needs to be won in Macedonia, not in Brussels, and that all other options for Macedonia are historical "dead ends" is assessed as true. However, specific steps in that direction are hardly visible, at least not in the first 100 days. Hopefully, this tendency will change in the remaining period.

tel. ++ 389/2/44-44-88 lok. 188; fax: ++ 389/2/44-44-99 e-mail: nzdrav@soros.org.mk

British Government through the Foreign and Comonwealth Office from the Conflict Prevention Fund

[1] The project “Citizens Platform for Peace and Stability” is implemented by the Foundation Open Society Institute – Macedonia, in cooperation with the NGO Support Centres in Veles, Prilep, Stip and Kicevo, and the local NGOs from Skopje, Tetovo, Kumanovo, Bitola, Struga and Strumica. The project is co-funded by the Foundation Open Society Institute – Macedonia and the British Government through the Foreign and Commonwealth Office from the Conflict Prevention Fund.

* Political party - Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM)

* Political party - Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)

* Political party – Democratic Union for Integration (DUI)